Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier spelled things out pretty clearly the other day when he was quoted as saying this about the team's QB situation: "Ideally, [the goal] would be to get a young guy that [we] could say, 'OK, we're going to ride with this guy. He's our [Joe] Flacco, he's our [Mark] Sanchez, he's our Matt Ryan,'" Frazier said. "He would step in as our starter. That would be the ideal situation. ... There's no question that would be the way to go, and it's probably been a while since that's happened in Minnesota."
Indeed, it has been a while. Fran Tarkenton in 1961 -- the Vikings' first year of existence -- is the last true rookie we can find who led the team in passing (Joe Kapp played several years in the CFL before starting for the Vikings in 1967 at age 29. Daunte Culpepper, you'll recall, was in his second year when he took over).
Would it work to start a rookie? Well, Frazier referenced three guys in that quote. All three were drafted in the first round since 2008 and played extensively right away, as were three other rookies who were thrown right into the fire: Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford. Here is a quick look at how all six fared in that first year (draft/rookie year in parentheses):
Flacco (2008): Helped the Ravens to an 11-5 record and a berth in the AFC title game, starting every game in the process. But his passer rating of 80.3 ranked No. 22 in the NFL. Baltimore's defense (third-fewest points allowed in the NFL) was the biggest reason for the Ravens' success. His numbers, though, steadily improved from Year 1 to Year 3.
Ryan (2008): Similar to Flacco. Led the Falcons to the playoffs as a rookie and has increased his TD pass total from 16 to 22 to 28 in his three pro seasons. The Falcons had the best record in the NFC last season.
Sanchez (2009): The wild card Jets reached the AFC title game in his rookie year, but it was almost in spite of him. Sanchez's passer rating of 63.0 was 28th in the NFL; he had 12 TDs and 20 INTs. So the Jets clearly had plenty going for them aside from the QB.
Freeman (2009): Struggled as a rookie (59.8 passer rating) but blossomed in Year 2 with 25 TD passes to go with just six INTs for Tampa Bay, which just missed the playoffs at 10-6.
Stafford (2009): Compiled a 2-8 record in 10 starts, with 13 TDs and 20 INTs. But the Lions were 0-16 the previous season, so this was a step up.
Bradford (2010): Had 18 TD passes and 15 INTs in helping lead the Rams to the brink of a playoff berth (in an admittedly weak division). His 3,512 yards passing were 12th in the league.
Translation: Recent history suggests success with a rookie QB is less of a rarity than it used to be. However, teams that have had success with rookie QBs have often had very good rosters around them.
